Saturday, November 26, 2005

Something did go awry in Ohio's Nov 2005 Election

CommonWonders (via BradBlog): The Columbus Dispatch’s survey of voters, conducted by mail, has historically been a reliable poll; it has been cited for its precision in the scholarly journal Public Opinion Quarterly and is considered far more accurate than telephone surveys. We know there’s cause to worry about the state of our democracy because of the historical accuracy of the Columbus Dispatch voter poll and the amazingly unexpected OH '05 election results. Of the 5 proposed amendments on the OH ballot, only Issue 1 was not related to the conduct of elections, unlike the other 4 proposed amendments and oddly enough its results were accurately forecast in the poll (predicted yes vote: 53%/ final yes vote: 54%). Issue 2 would have made absentee voting easier in OH, and all polls indicated high support for it. Prediction: 59% yes/ 33% no/ 9% undecided. The actual result: 36% yes/ whopping 63% no. Issue 3 would have lowered the campaign-contribution limits that a lame-duck legislature had raised a yr ago. Prediction: 61% yes/ 25% no/ 14% undecided. Actual result: 33% yes/ 66% no. Issue 4 would have controlled gerrymandering by establishing an independent board to draw congressional districts. Prediction: 31% yes/ 45% no/ 25% undecided. Result: 30% yes/ 69 % no. And for Issue 5, which would have establish an independent board instead of the secretary of state’s office to oversee elections, a 41% predicted yes vote shrank to 29%, while the no vote ballooned from 43 to 70%. Something stinks in OH's voting results... about as badly as they stunk in Nov '04.
Posted by Tina :: 1:10 AM :: 3 Comments:

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